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April 8, 2021

Corn prices on Brazil's B3 Exchange near R$ 100 Per Sack

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Concerns over tight corn supplies continues to support domestic corn prices in Brazil. The market is concerned about lower full-season corn production in southern Brazil and the possibility that dry weather or frost could negatively impact the safrinha corn that was planted much later than normal this year.

The average corn price in Mato Grosso earlier this week was R$ 72.36 per sack (approximately $6.00 per bushel) according to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea).

Corn futures contracts on the B3 Exchange in Sao Paulo are in the range of R$ 99.65 for May (approximately $8.23 per bushel), R$ 95.32 for June (approximately $7.87 per bushel), R$ 89.20 for September (approximately $7.37 per bushel), and R$ R$ 89.91 for November (approximately $7.43 per bushel). The futures market is anticipating an even tighter corn supply due to anticipated production problems with the safrinha corn.

Numerous factors will determine the future corn prices in Brazil including: the impact of weather on the safrinha corn production, potential reduced consumption by the livestock industry in southern Brazil which is currently losing money due to high feed costs, prices on the Chicago Board of Trade, potential corn acreage in the United States, summer growing conditions in the United States, Chinese purchases of corn, and Brazilian farmers willingness to sell corn. Even under a best case scenario, domestic corn prices are expected to remain elevated for the foreseeable future.

Imea reported that 45% of the safrinha corn in Mato Grosso was planted after the ideal planting window had closed by the end of February. The delays in safrinha corn planting were even greater in the states of Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo, and Goias.

Late planted safrinha corn in Mato Grosso may run out of moisture before reaching maturity due to the onset of the annual dry season. Late planted safrinha corn in the more southern states of Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul may encounter freezing temperatures before reaching maturity.