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February 21, 2018

Brazil Soybeans 26% Harvested, slowed by Wet Weather

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The weather in Brazil last week was dryer than it has been for several weeks especially in southern Brazil. The forecast is calling for more rain moving into central and northern Brazil with lessor amounts in far southern Brazil. The forecast looks like it is going to be quite wet during the last half of February especially in central Brazil. The Brazilian soybean crop was 17% harvested compared to 26% last year and 19% for the 5-year average.

Mato Grosso - According to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) Mato Grosso is 44.9% harvested compared to 51.9% last year and 43.3% for the 5-year average. This represent an advance of 16% for the week. The harvest is most advanced in western Mato Grosso where 68% of the soybeans have been harvested and in the mid-north where 64% has been harvested. The slowest harvest pace is in the northeastern region where 15% of the soybeans have been harvested.

A lot of the soybeans being harvested have a high moisture content and if farmers do not have drying capacity on their farms, they must take the beans directly to the grain elevators where the price is discounted if the moisture is above 15%. The forecast for central Brazil is very wet for the second half of February. A lot of the area is forecasted to receive double the normal amount of rainfall for the second half of February.

Parana - In the state of Parana wet weather continues to slow the soybean harvest. Only 5% of the soybeans have been harvested in Parana compared to 20% last year and 23% for the 5-year average.

Rio Grande do Sul - The rainfall in northern Rio Grande do Sul, where 82% of the soybeans are grown, has been good this growing season and farmers are expecting yields above the historical average, but probably less than the record yields recorded last growing season. A few fields of soybeans have been harvested in northern Rio Grande do Sul in the municipality of Santa Rosa with an average yield of 3,000 kg/ha (43.5 bu/ac) and a range of 2,700 to 3,300 kg/ha (39 to 48 bu/ac).

In southern Rio Grande do Sul, it is a different story. Southern Rio Grande do Sul has been very dry for the last several months and this is where 18% of the state's soybeans are produced. Emater/RS is expecting the soybean yields in southern part of the state to decline 11% or more depending on future rainfall. There have already been 14 cities in the southern part of the state that have declared a state of emergency due to low water supplies.

The soybean harvest progress in other state include: 18% in Goias, 16% in Mato Grosso do Sul, 12% in Sao Paulo, 7% in Minas Gerais, 5% in Santa Catarina, 3% on Tocantins, and 2% in Bahia.