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July 11, 2017

U.S. Crop Conditions Decline due to Hotter and Dryer Conditions

Corn - The condition of the 2017 U.S. corn crop declined 3% last week to 65% rated good to excellent. Six states indicated that the corn condition had improved last week and 12 states indicated that the corn condition had declined last week. Most of the improvements were found in the southern Corn Belt while most of the declines were found in the central and western Corn Belt. The top five rated corn states are: Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Minnesota. The five lowest rated corn states are: South Dakota, North Dakota, Indiana, Ohio, and Colorado.

As expected, the slight improvement in the corn rating two weeks ago was an aberration and not the start of a trend. Going forward, I think the combination of higher temperatures, lower rainfall, and increased water demand from the corn crop is going to result in continued declines in the corn crop condition ratings.

Soybeans - The condition of the 2017 U.S. soybean crop declined 2% last week to 62% rated good to excellent. Two states indicated that the soybean condition had improved last week while 14 states indicated that the soybean condition had declined last week and 2 states were unchanged. The improvements were found in Louisiana and Minnesota while the declines were found throughout the Corn Belt. The top five rated soybean states are: Tennessee, Louisiana, North Carolina, Kentucky, and Minnesota. The five lowest rated soybean states are: South Dakota, North Dakota, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan.

The soybean condition rating continued its downward trend from last week and given the current forecast, I think it will decline again next week.

Soil Moisture - The nation's soil moisture got dryer last week with 5 states indicating improved soil moisture while 12 states indicating dryer soil moisture. Most of the improvements were found in the southern and eastern areas while most of the declines were found in the central and western areas. The five states with the highest soil moisture are: Tennessee, Ohio, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Kentucky. The five states with the lowest soil moisture are: South Dakota, Nebraska, North Dakota, Iowa, and Illinois.

It was not a surprise that the soil moisture declined last week. With the current forecast, I think the soil moisture will decline again next week.