November 1, 2016

2016/17 Brazil Soybeans 41% Planted, Slightly Ahead of Average

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Brazil weather - The weather last week in Brazil was mixed. Approximately half of the country had good weather, a quarter of the country was too wet especially in southern Brazil and a quarter of the country was too dry especially in northeastern Brazil.

It was also colder than normal in southern Brazil at the end of last week. Last Friday in Santa Catarina, the temperatures were more like winter than spring. In the higher elevations of Santa Catarina, last Friday morning the temperatures dropped down to 0°C. In the city of Chapeco in western Santa Catarina, last Friday morning it was 6°C, which was the coldest October temperature in 15 years, since 2001.

The forecast for this week looks favorable for the center-west region which should receive adequate showers, but with an uneven distribution. Northeastern Brazil should remain mostly dry this week with increased chances of rainfall next week. Southern Brazil may receive more heavy rains this week with generally dry weather next week.

Brazil planting - According to AgRural, the 2016/17 Brazilian soybean crop is 41% planted compared to 31% last year and 40% average. The soybean planting is the most advanced in the central regions of Brazil and least advanced in northeastern Brazil. I would estimate that 65-75% of Brazil's soybeans are getting off to a good start, 15-20% are being delayed due to dry conditions, and 10-15% are being delayed due to wet weather.

Mato Grosso - According to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea), farmers in the state have planted 67% of their soybeans compared to 38% last year. Farmers in the state planted 25% of their soybeans in a one week period, which is about as fast as ever can be expected! The western part of the state is furthest ahead at 83% planted while the northeastern region of the state is furthest behind with 20% planted. There have been three cases of soybean rust reported in the state, but all three were on volunteer soybeans.

The majority of the soybeans that will be followed by a second crop of corn have already been planted, which is good news for the safrinha corn crop.

Parana - The soybean crop in Parana is approximately 65% planted compared to 68% last year. The earliest planted soybeans in Parana have started to flower.

Rio Grande do Sul - In contrast to many areas in Brazil, the state of Rio Grande do Sul has received excessive rainfall in recent weeks. The biggest concern is for the wheat crop and potential yield losses and poor quality grain. The soybeans in the state are 1% planted and the ideal planting window in the state is the month of November.

Goias - Soybean planting in Goias is approximately 20% compared to an average of 50%. Rainfall in the state has been very irregular with some areas having gone15-20 days without rain. The ideal planting window for soybeans in the state will close at the end of November.

Mato Grosso do Sul - The state received needed rainfall last week and the soybean crop is estimated at 37% planted. Planting has been delayed approximately 30 days in some areas of the state due to dry weather. The rainfall last week finally increased the soil moisture enough to allow farmers to start planting their 2016/17 soybean crop.

Tocantins - The soybeans in the state are only 5% planted due to dry weather and the rainfall is not expected to improve until mid-November. The planting window in the state closes about December 10th.

Maranhao - Dry weather in the state has slowed the soybean planting which is now 20% complete. There are reports that some of the earlier planted soybeans will need to be replanted when the soil moisture improves. The forecast is for improved chances of rainfall starting next week. The ideal soybean planting window in the state will close at the end of November.