October 7, 2016

2016/17 Brazil Soybean Estimate - 101.8 - 104.0 mt, up 6.7% to 9.0%

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

On Thursday, October 6th, Conab released their first estimate of the 2016/17 Brazilian growing season.

Conab is estimating that the 2016/17 soybean acreage in Brazil will increase 0.6% to 2.7% going from 33.25 million hectares in 2015/16 to 33.44 - 34.53 million hectares in 2016/17. In total hectares, the soybean acreage will increase 191,000 to 1,280,000 hectares. The mid-point of the 2016/17 soybean acreage estimate is 33.98 million hectares or 83.9 million acres.

Almost all the increase in soybean acreage will be in the center-west and northern regions of Brazil. The soybean acreage in the traditional southern areas of Brazil is down in 2016/17 in favor of more full-season corn, dry beans, and irrigated rice.

The 2016/17 Brazilian soybean yield is expected to increase 6.1% from 2,870 kg/ha in 2015/16 (41.6 bu/ac) to 3,046 kg/ha in 2016/17 (44.1 bu/ac).

The 2016/17 Brazilian soybean production is estimated at 101.86 to 104.0 million tons or up 6.7% to 9.0%. Last year's production was 95.4 million tons, so the Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase 6.4 to 8.5 million tons in 2016/17. Conab's first estimate of the 2016/17 Brazilian soybean crop is slightly higher than analysts had expected.

Brazil's full-season corn acreage is estimated at 5.31 to 5.61 million hectares or -1.3% to +4.2% compared to the 5.38 million hectares planted in 2015/16. The yield of the full-season corn is estimated at 4,941 kg/ha (76.0 bu/ac) or +3.0% compared to last year's yield of 4,799 kg/ha (73.9 bu/ac). Full-season corn production estimated in the range of 26.27 million tons to 27.73 million tons or +1.6 to +7.3% compared to 2015/16. The full-season corn production in Brazil in 2015/16 was 25.85 million tons, so Conab is estimating that the full-season corn production will increase 0.88 to 1.88 million tons in 2016/17.

The increase in full-season corn acreage is mainly in southern Brazil, while the full-season corn acreage in southeastern Brazil is expected to either hold steady or increase slightly. The states of Minas Gerais and Rio Grande do Sul are essentially tied for first place in full-season corn acreage followed by Parana.

Conab has not yet conducted a survey concerning the 2016/17 safrinha corn acreage in Brazil, therefore, the safrinha corn acreage remained unchanged from last year. Normally, Conab conducts their first survey of the safrinha corn crop for their February Crop Report. They did however increase the expected yield of the 2016/17 Brazil's safrinha corn crop by 37% from 3,877 kg/ha last year (59.7 bu/ac) to 5,323 kg/ha in 2016/17 (81.9 bu/ac).

Brazil's total corn production in 2016/17 is estimated at 82.34 to 83.80 million tons or up 15.65 to 17.11 million tons from last year's production of 66.69 million tons.