September 27, 2016

South American Weather - Improved North, Colder-Dryer South

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Brazil - The weather patterns in Brazil appear to have shifted, at least for the time being. The weather has turned much wetter in Mato Grosso and central Brazil than what had been forecasted as recently as 10 days ago while the weather in southern Brazil has turned much dryer than what had been forecasted.

Rain showers are occurring in Mato Grosso and central Brazil with increasing frequency. This week the rainfall may ease off a little, but the forecast is calling for increased chances of rain next week. You never know for sure when the summer rainy season has started in central Brazil until you are several weeks into it. There could still be periods of dry weather ahead, but it looks promising at this point that the summer rainy season may have started.

The weather in southern Brazil has done just the opposite. After wet weather several weeks ago, it turned dryer last week and the forecast looks on the dry side for this week. The forecast is now calling for the next chance of showers next weekend. A strong cold front is sweeping into southern Brazil early this week with the possibility of scattered frosts in the higher elevations of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul.

Northeastern Brazil is forecasted to receive rain this week, which would be very welcomed news for farmers suffering from a prolonged drought.

Argentina - Central and northern Argentina has definitely gone into a dryer cycle. There were some showers over the weekend in eastern Argentina, but most of Argentina stayed dry. There is not much rain in the forecast for this week with a better chance of rain next week. Temperatures in Argentina are quite cold with widespread freezing temperatures this week that could impact some of the developing wheat crop.

Paraguay - Paraguay had ample soil moisture several weeks ago, but it too has turned dryer. The forecast is calling for light showers this week with a better chance of rain next week.

Bolivia - The rainfall in eastern Bolivia where most of the soybeans are grown appears to have been good enough for farmers in the region to start planting their soybeans. The forecast is calling for lighter rainfall amounts this week with improved chances of rain next week.