Oct 08, 2024
2024/25 Brazil Soy 5.2% Planted vs. 10% Last Year, Rain Expected
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Soybeans in Brazil were 5.2% planted as of late last week compared to 10% last year and 8.8% average according to Patria Agronegocios. The slow planting pace is the result of hot and dry conditions in central Brazil keeping the planters parked. Rainfall has occurred in southern Brazil and the state of Parana is by far the leader in soybean planting with 26% planted. The state of Mato Grosso is lagging at 2.0% planted.
A short delay in soybean planting in central Brazil may not impact the potential soybean yield if the weather cooperates for the rest of the growing season. Soybeans can be planted well into November without a yield penalty, but the weather must cooperate.
A delay in soybean planting could have a greater impact on the safrinha cotton and safrinha corn production than the soybean production. Approximately 75% of Brazil's corn is planted as a second crop after soybeans are harvested. If soybean planting is delayed, so too would be the safrinha corn planting and that could impact the safrinha corn yield.
The 2024/25 soybean acreage in Brazil is estimated at 46.8 million hectares (115.5 million acres), which is up 1.0 million hectares or 2.1%. The 2024/25 Brazil soybean production is estimated at 165.0 million tons, which is up 12 million tons or 7.8%.
Mato Grosso - Farmers in Mato Grosso had planted 2.0% of their 2024/25 soybeans as of late last week compared to 14.2% last year and 9.4% average according to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea). This represents an advance of 1.5% for the week. When planting gets rolling in Mato Grosso, farmers can plant 15% or more of their soybeans on a weekly basis depending on the weather.
Below is the soybean planting pace in Mato Grosso (red line) as of October 4, 2024 from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea).
Parana - Soybean planting in Parana is 26% compared to 20% last year and 14% average. This represents an advance of 11% for the week. After four months or more of dry weather, Parana has been receiving rain for the last several weeks and there is more rain in the forecast. Most farmers waited for rain before they started planting, but some farmers planted in dry soil in anticipation of rainfall. That is a risky strategy, but it worked out this year.
Mato Grosso do Sul - Soybean planting in Mato Grosso do Sul is 4% compared to 4% last year and 3.6% average. All the planting in the state has occurred in the southern half of the state where they have received rain. The northern half of the state remains too dry to plant, but the forecast is calling for rain in the region starting this week.
Below is the soybean planting progress in Brazil as of October 4, 2024 from Patria Agronegocios.
Conab will release their first official estimate of the 2024/25 soybean and corn crops in Brazil on Tuesday, October 15th.